5. Assessment June 2019

Reasons for a Dim Prognosis

The new keeps coming. Some optimistic, some pesimistic. It comes in all forms: peer reviewed papers, op eds, opinion artiles either independent or associated with various organization. Some is a referral to a paper that appeared elsewhere and so forth.

But none of it is definitive because surprises keep coming.

Ten years ago most IPCC reports turned out to be optomistic and since these focused on peer reviewed reports that had the characteristic of good science of narrowing reporting to what is most reliable. But that is taking a chance also. The following is an informal list:

1. Carbon and methane emissions in aggrigate keep increasing

2. China at last report was shutting down over 100 coal fired plants but then planning to build them for other countries

3. India as a massive program for solar power but its putposes is to keepup with its need for more power. In 2040 when the program is complete there will be a great deal more power but no net reductions in emissions,

4. America is the joker in the deck and anything may happen. Its failure to lead may be the single most negative force.

5. The result go evey which way. Germany unfortunately shut down its nuclear capabiity. 6. Storage is still an issue but with promissing developments 7. Nuclear has gotten a much worse name than it deserves. It is absolutely clean, if best practices are followed it can be extremely safe, and it emissions from the plants it replaces are viewed as dangerous for what they do to the air, nuclear will be several times safer. 8. Nevative emissions is getting little attention. One organization is speculating on advanced farming techniques applied to every acre of farmland on earth. This will bury carbon a few feet under ground in the roots of certain plants. This has received only the most limited testing. 9. True negative emisssion (air laundering) is very expensive but burries the carbon deep in the ground. When all other methods are tallied, even at its price it could become the deal maker.

10. The swing to the right of world governments is not a good development in achieving cooperation. Bigger programs mean bigger governents whih are a no-no. It is a catch 22 of leaving much undone. 11. The IPCC does not have the resources to evaluate programs and technologies and each nation's needs, carry out negotiations and then not manage but oversee the whole operation.

12. I believe we have waited too long and will find ourselves preoccupied with putting out fires rather than managing a well-concieved longer range project.

Emissions reduction shortfalls

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