In 1959, Edward Teller made the petroleum industry aware of the risks of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The petroleum industry did its own research and came to the same conclusion, but suppressed the information. Now some 70 years later, the level of carbon dioxide has reached 412 ppm and the fossil fuel suppliers are determined to burn as much of it as possible.i

1. The last time CO2 was this high was came during the Pliocene Epoch, which extended from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million years ago.

2. Although there have been many solar and wind projects the amount of CO2 continues to rise, since the emissions are dominated by power generation and transportation and so-called "renewables" do not begin to have enough capacity.

3. The two figures above illustrate the present problem. Fig 1 (above left) is an extrapolation by curve fitting of NASA temperature data from 1880 to 2018. It roughly matches the "business as usual" scenarios of various more formal studies. The second figure shows (upper lines) approximately what is happening, while the lower lines are what needs to be happening to hold temperature rise to something like the goals of the Paris Accords. The obvious conclusion is that we are not only not making progress, we are going backwards. The reason for the lack of progress is obvious: 1) no action plan has been agreed to; 2) no one is in charge; 3) president Trump is doing all he can to sabotage efforts at control.

4. Energy systems, such as the earth's climate, may come to an equilibrium given enough time which is what had happened over the previous 800,0000 years until about 1850.

5. At this point, with the invention of the steam engine, followed by electric power generation and automobiles was the equivalent of throwing many large bombs of CO2 into the system. This has upset the equilibrium to the point that it appears to me it does not make sense to talk about a "climate." The continued input of more CO2 and the beginnings of release of methane from the tunra make any pretense of equilibrium nonsence.

6. The climate is unstable and the management of emissions so lacking that there can be no pretense of bringing things under control without launch of a massive program.

Besides the climate of the last 400,000 years having been torn to shreds by streams of greenhouse gasses, now politicians and fossil fuel barons of incomprehensible greed keep rising emissions when they should be taking a nosedive. (Australia has just concluded an enormous sale of coal).

Controlling these interests could become so difficult as to require the use of force. When greed takes over, belief in science or data or anything else rational disappears. So the worst case starts to feel probable and even likely.

I contend that nuclear power generation will be essential as soon as possible and the negative emissions will also be critical. And the way to get these is to start research now.

The slide show below uses older images, and is still terrifying.

Time Magazine

More Than You Want To Know

The new issue of Time Magazine describes a world I do not want to live in. It is, in fact, a world no one can live in becauses it will be too hot and will get hotter and hotter forever, eventually becoming a dead planet.

But we, all humans of every language and religion, have a moral obligation to the future, to our children and all their children to stop damaging the Earth now.

We must:

1. Get emissions down as fast as possible.

2. Remove the carbon we have added to help heal the earth.

3. Rise to the greatest challenge in the history of humanity.

4. And so, to succeed, become a better humanity.

We are standing on the edge of a crumbling cliff...but there are no other options.

It is a huge challenge, but there is no other way. We must rally as we did in World War II and the Apollo program, but now several times over. It is a challenge that America, returning to be leader of the world, must meet.

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