Untitled photo
A Step Back


MANY CLUES. NO CONVICTION.

HOWEVER, CLIMATE CHANGE WAS STILL THE DRIVING FORCE for because of the helplessness of our civilization it would proceed unimpeded and both the temperature of the Earth and the challenges to civilization were on the verge of an exponential explosion.

Indeed, if one were to do the simplest projection possible, a trend line extrapolation of NASA temperature data from 1860 to 2017, a jolt appeared that I had not anticipated. This extrapolation is reproduced below. There has been some discussion that temperature increase could be exponential and that this would be catastrophic. I am certain that others had done this extrapolation, although perhaps not on this data. The extrapolation covered a fairly long period and the data was "noisy" with the effect of volcanoes and other anomilies interferring.

HOWEVER, WITH APPROPRIATE SMOOTHING the overall data suggests the beginning of a polynominal expansion, presuming you acccept Microsofts algorhythyms. However, it is interesting that prior to looking at Excel's calculation I had done a bit of curve fitting and my curve landed in between the 2nd and 3rd order polynominals. Already there are many signs the climate is running away from our efforts and it will not take much more rise in temperature before the temperature curve really does become exponential.

This is our ONLY home and, especially in the United States, we are not devoting attenton to its problems on a large enough scale and instead following policies that would permantently and seriously damage the earth so that it will not support nearly its present popuation, and concievably could become uninhabitable. I believe that for the first time in modern history and possibly all human history that a strategy for solving the problem is not evident. There is no one thing to do more of or build more of that will do the job given the breakdown of American democracy, the wide ignorance of basic science and the lulling effect that too much of the world is at present escaping the worst effects of warming. In addition there are aspects of human psychology that suggest this attitude might be expected which is the reason I gave the accounting of the last world-wide disaster that resisted for so long the attention that was essential.

THERE IS, OF COURSE ONE STRATEGY that appears at this point like a long shot, and that is to vote out of office every member of every goverment that is not fully supportive of what must be done, and to vote in every climate activist possible. This is a very long shot.

Untitled photo
Untitled photo
Powered by SmugMug Owner Log In